Effects of the War in Iraq: An Analysis of Maine Voters

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of the war in Iraq on voters in Maine. Utilising actual vote tallies rather than two party share of the vote, this paper looks directly at changes in vote tallies. Results indicate a positive non‐linear direct effect, larger effects in wealthier counties, larger effects in less populated counties, and larger effects in counties with high levels of previous votes for Democratic candidates. Results indicate that models should use various cross effects between war and economic variables to improve prediction power.

Keywords: Iraq War, Median Voter Throem, Maine Voters, Vote Prediction

JEL Classification: C23, D72