Policy Analysis Using DSGE Models: An Introduction
21 Pages Posted: 17 Oct 2010
Date Written: October 2010
Abstract
Many central banks have come to rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, or DSGE, models to inform their economic outlook and to help formulate their policy strategies. But while their use is familiar to policymakers and academics, these models are typically not well known outside these circles. This article introduces the basic structure, logic, and application of the DSGE framework to a broader public by providing an example of its use in monetary policy analysis. The authors present and estimate a simple New Keynesian DSGE model, highlighting the core features that this basic specification shares with more elaborate versions. They then apply the estimated model to study the sources of the sudden increase in inflation that occurred in the first half of 2004. One important lesson derived from this exercise is that the management of expectations can be a more effective tool for stabilizing inflation than actual movements in the policy rate. This result is consistent with the increasing focus on the pronouncements of central bankers regarding their future actions.
Keywords: DSGE models, Monetary policy
JEL Classification: E31, E52
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
By Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, ...
-
Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy
By Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, ...
-
An Estimated Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts
By Christopher J. Erceg, Dale W. Henderson, ...
-
Shocks and Frictions in Us Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
Shocks and Frictions in U.S. Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach
By Frank Smets and Rafael Wouters
-
Resuscitating Real Business Cycles
By Robert G. King and Sergio T. Rebelo
-
Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?
By Jean Boivin and Marc P. Giannoni