Housing Loans' Development in France: An Analysis in Terms of Cycles

59 Pages Posted: 20 Oct 2010

Date Written: July 1, 2007

Abstract

This article puts forward a framework based primarily on probabilistic tools to analyse the nature of housing loan cycles in France. The continued high growth rate of housing loans may indeed raise concerns as to the duration and determinants of the cycle which currently prevails. The results obtained suggest that the current cycle is actually exceptional in many respects. One the one hand, it is the longest housing loans cycle observed over the last thirty years, while its occurrence appears to be structurally decoupled with several indicators of the real economy. On the other hand, this cycle may also be related to the existence of an excess supply regime, which could prove an important explanatory factor of a decoupling with the real economy.

Note: Downloadable document is in French.

Keywords: credit cycle, band-pass filters, Markov Switching, disequilibrium

JEL Classification: E32, E44, E51

Suggested Citation

Kierzenkowski, Rafaƚ and Oung, Vichett, Housing Loans' Development in France: An Analysis in Terms of Cycles (July 1, 2007). Banque de France Working Paper No. 172, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1694452 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1694452

Rafaƚ Kierzenkowski (Contact Author)

Université Paris IX Dauphine ( email )

Place du Marchal De Lattre de Tassigny
75775 Paris
France
+33 1 44 05 49 47 (Phone)
+33 1 44 05 40 98 (Fax)

Vichett Oung

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

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