Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?

35 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Adeline Delavande

Adeline Delavande

New University of Lisbon - Faculdade de Economia

Xavier Giné

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

David J. McKenzie

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Date Written: October 1, 2010

Abstract

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.

Keywords: Economic Theory & Research, Information Security & Privacy, Markets and Market Access, Statistical & Mathematical Sciences, Crops and Crop Management Systems

Suggested Citation

Delavande, Adeline and Gine, Xavier and McKenzie, David John, Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design? (October 1, 2010). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5458. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1697965

Adeline Delavande (Contact Author)

New University of Lisbon - Faculdade de Economia ( email )

Campus de Campolide
Lisboa, 1099-032
Portugal
+35 1 21 380 16 00 (Phone)
+35 1 21 387 09 33 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://docentes.fe.unl.pt/~adeline/page2.html

Xavier Gine

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States

HOME PAGE: https://sites.google.com/site/decrgxaviergine/

David John McKenzie

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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