Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
51 Pages Posted: 7 Nov 2010
There are 3 versions of this paper
Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
Date Written: November 2, 2010
Abstract
We propose a new approach to test of the null of full-information rational expectations which is informative about whether rejections of the null reflect departures from rationality or full-information. This approach can also quantify the economic significance of departures from the null by mapping them into the underlying degree of information rigidity faced by economic agents. Applying this approach to both U.S. and cross-country data of professional forecasters and other economic agents yields pervasive evidence of informational rigidities that can be explained by models of imperfect information. Furthermore, the proposed approach sheds new light on the implications of policies such as inflation-targeting and those leading to the Great Moderation on expectations. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.
Keywords: Expectations, Information Rigidity, Survey Forecasts
JEL Classification: E3, E4, E5
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?
Recommended Papers
-
Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis
By Jordi Galí and Mark Gertler
-
Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices
By Mark Bils and Peter J. Klenow
-
Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
By N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis
-
Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
By N. Gregory Mankiw and Ricardo Reis
-
By Varadarajan V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, ...
-
Real Rigidities and the Non-Neutrality of Money
By Laurence Ball and David H. Romer
-
By Jordi Galí, Mark Gertler, ...
-
Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?