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Speculators, Commodities and Cross-Market Linkages

57 Pages Posted: 13 Nov 2010 Last revised: 14 Nov 2012

Bahattin Buyuksahin

Bank of Canada

Michel A. Robe

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 8, 2012

Abstract

We use a unique, non-public dataset of individual trader positions in 17 U.S. commodity futures markets to provide novel evidence on those markets’ financialization in the past decade. We then show that the correlation between the rates of return on commodities and equities rises amid greater participation by speculators generally, hedge funds especially, and funds that trade in both equity and commodity markets in particular. We find no such relationship for other kinds of commodity futures traders. The predictive power of hedge fund positions is weaker in periods of generalized financial market stress. Our results indicate that who trades helps predict the joint distribution of commodity and equity returns.

Keywords: Financialization, Cross-Market Linkages, Commodities, Equities, Hedge funds, Index funds, Dynamic conditional correlations (DCC)

JEL Classification: G10, G12, G13, G23

Suggested Citation

Buyuksahin, Bahattin and Robe, Michel A., Speculators, Commodities and Cross-Market Linkages (November 8, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1707103 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1707103

Bahattin Buyuksahin

Bank of Canada ( email )

234 Wellington Street
Ontario, Ottawa K1A 0G9
Canada

Michel A. Robe (Contact Author)

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

601 E John St
Champaign, IL 61820
United States

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