Revisiting U.S. Productivity Growth Over the Past Century with a View of the Future

48 Pages Posted: 14 Nov 2010  

Robert J. Gordon

Northwestern University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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Date Written: September 2010

Abstract

This paper provides three perspectives on long-run growth rates of labor productivity (LP) and of multi-factor productivity (MFP) for the U. S. economy. It extracts statistical growth trends for labor productivity from quarterly data for the total economy going back to 1952, provides new estimates of MFP growth extending back to 1891, and tackles the problem of forecasting LP and MFP twenty years into the future.

Keywords: capital quality, human capital, labor quality, labour productivity, long-term economic growth, multi-factor productivity, U. S. economic history

JEL Classification: D24, E01, E22, N1, N11, N12

Suggested Citation

Gordon, Robert J., Revisiting U.S. Productivity Growth Over the Past Century with a View of the Future (September 2010). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7991. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1707861

Robert J. Gordon (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Department of Economics ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://faculty-web.at.northwestern.edu/economics/g

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