Sentimental Preferences and the Organizational Regime of Betting Markets
31 Pages Posted: 16 Nov 2010 Last revised: 25 Oct 2011
Date Written: February 16, 2010
We analyze the price impact of sentimental bettor preferences within a bookmaker betting market. Our model demonstrates that, under reasonable assumptions about the nature of demand in a market with strong competition, the bookmaker will offer lower prices for bets with comparatively stronger demand. Using a sample of more than 16,000 English soccer matches we find evidence that more favorable odds are extended to bets on more popular clubs and that this effect is amplified on weekends when sentimental bettors face lower opportunity costs to wager. Our findings help to explain why the market for sports gambling operates as a hybrid structure with bookmakers able to attract a considerable share of the betting volume although identical contracts are traded on exchange markets at lower costs; the organizational design of a quote-driven market enables the dealer to take advantage of sentimental bettor preferences.
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