Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World

25 Pages Posted: 17 Nov 2010 Last revised: 25 Apr 2012

See all articles by Carlo Carraro

Carlo Carraro

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); Ca' Foscari University of Venice; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (Climate Policy Division); IPCC; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels; Green Growth Knowledge Platform; International Center for Climate Governance

Emanuele Massetti

Georgia Institute of Technology; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Date Written: November 17, 2010

Abstract

We propose a realistic approach to climate policy based on the Copenhagen Agreement to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions. We assess by how much the non-binding, although official, commitments to reduce emissions made in Copenhagen will affect the level of world GHGs emissions in 2020. Our estimates are based on official communications to the UNFCCC, on historic data and on the Business-as-Usual scenario of the WITCH model. We are not interested in estimating the gap between the expected level of emissions and what would be needed to achieve the 2°C target. Nor do we attempt to calculate the 2100 temperature level implied by the Copenhagen pledges. We believe these two exercises are subject to high uncertainty and would not improve the current state of negotiations. Rather, we take stock of the present politically achievable level of commitment and suggest an effective way to push forward the climate policy agenda. The focus is on what can be done rather than on what should be done. To this end, we estimate the potential of the financial provisions of the Copenhagen Agreement to sponsor mitigation effort in Non-Annex I countries. Using scenarios produced with the WITCH model, we show that lower commitment on domestic abatement measures can be compensated by devoting roughly 50% of the Copenhagen financial provisions in 2020 to mitigation in Non-Annex I countries. The policy implications of our results will be discussed.

Keywords: Kyoto Protocol, International Climate Agreements, Climate Policy, Clean Development Mechanism

JEL Classification: F5, Q01, Q54, Q58

Suggested Citation

Carraro, Carlo and Massetti, Emanuele, Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World (November 17, 2010). FEEM Working Paper No. 136.2010; CMCC Research Paper No. 104. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1710487 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1710487

Carlo Carraro

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Isola di San Giorgio Maggiore 8
Venezia, 30124
Italy
+39 04 12700460 (Phone)
+39 04 12700412 (Fax)

Ca' Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy
+39 04 1234 9166 (Phone)
+39 04 1234 9176 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.carlocarraro.org/

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (Climate Policy Division) ( email )

Via Augusto Imperatore 16
Lecce, 73100
Italy
+39 0832 288650 (Phone)
+39 0832 277603 (Fax)

IPCC ( email )

C/O World Meteorological Organization
7bis Avenue de la Paix
Geneva, CH-1211
Switzerland
+41-22-730-8208/54/84 (Phone)
+41-22-730-8025/13 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels

1 Place du Congres
B-1000 Brussels, 1000
Belgium
+32 2 229 3911 (Phone)
+32 2 219 4151 (Fax)

Green Growth Knowledge Platform ( email )

International Environment House
11-13 chemin des Anemones
Geneva, 1219
Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/

International Center for Climate Governance ( email )

Island of San Giorgio Maggiore 8
Venice, I-30124
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.iccgov.org/

Emanuele Massetti (Contact Author)

Georgia Institute of Technology ( email )

685 Cherry St.
Atlanta, GA 30332-0345
United States

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
78
rank
294,958
Abstract Views
623
PlumX Metrics