The Bond Yield Conundrum: Alternative Hypotheses and the State of the Economy

36 Pages Posted: 22 Nov 2010

See all articles by Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger

Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger

Tilburg University (CentER) - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Ronald Mahieu

Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research, Econometrics and Finance Group; TiasNimbas Business School

Louis Raes

Tilburg University; Tilburg University - European Banking Center

Date Written: October 2010

Abstract

We study the bond yield conundrum in a macro-finance framework. Building upon a flexible and non-structural macro-finance model, we test the hypothesis that the bond yield conundrum is connected to various sources of uncertainty in the financial markets. Moreover we explicitly test for the role of the state of the economy. Our findings give a richer description of the drivers of the term premium yet the conundrum remains. The results in this paper indicate that the underlying observable drivers of the term premium are not yet fully understood.

Keywords: affine models, monetary policy, term premium, yield curve

JEL Classification: E43, E44, E52

Suggested Citation

Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. and Mahieu, Ronald J. and Raes, Louis, The Bond Yield Conundrum: Alternative Hypotheses and the State of the Economy (October 2010). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8063. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1711076

Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger (Contact Author)

Tilburg University (CentER) - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 2411 (Phone)
+31 13 466 3042 (Fax)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Ronald J. Mahieu

Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research, Econometrics and Finance Group ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 2430 (Phone)
+31 13 466 3280 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://center.uvt.nl/staff/mahieu/

TiasNimbas Business School ( email )

Warandelaan 2
Tilburg, North-Brabant 5071HS
Netherlands

Louis Raes

Tilburg University ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, DC 5000 LE
Netherlands

Tilburg University - European Banking Center ( email )

PO Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

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