Interstate Migration Has Fallen Less than You Think: Consequences of Hot Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey

22 Pages Posted: 22 Nov 2010

See all articles by Greg Kaplan

Greg Kaplan

Princeton University - Department of Economics

Greg Kaplan

University of Pennsylvania

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Date Written: November 2010

Abstract

We show that much of the recent reported decrease in interstate migration is a statistical artifact. Before 2006, the Census Bureau's imputation procedure for dealing with missing data inflated the estimated interstate migration rate. An undocumented change in the procedure corrected the problem starting in 2006, thus reducing the estimated migration rate. The change in imputation procedures explains 90 percent of the reported decrease in interstate migration between 2005 and 2006, and 42 percent of the decrease between 2000 (the recent high-water mark) and 2010. After we remove the effect of the change in procedures, we find that the annual interstate migration rate follows a smooth downward trend from 1996 to 2010. Contrary to popular belief, the 2007{ 2009 recession is not associated with any additional decrease in interstate migration relative to trend.

Suggested Citation

Kaplan, Greg and Kaplan, Greg and Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, Interstate Migration Has Fallen Less than You Think: Consequences of Hot Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey (November 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w16536. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1711676

Greg Kaplan (Contact Author)

Princeton University - Department of Economics ( email )

Princeton, NJ 08544-1021
United States

Greg Kaplan

University of Pennsylvania ( email )

Philadelphia, PA 19104
United States

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago ( email )

230 South LaSalle Street
Chicago, IL 60604
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sschulh1.wordpress.com

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
18
Abstract Views
637
PlumX Metrics