Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance Benefits: Evidence From The Monthly CPS

Abstract

Using the monthly CPS, the author estimates unemployment-to-employment (UE) transition rates and unemployment-to-inactivity (UN) transition rates by unemployment duration for male workers. When estimated for the period of 2004-2007, during which no extended benefits are available, both of the transition-rate profiles show clear patterns consistent with the expiration of regular benefits at 26 weeks. These patterns largely disappear in the profiles for the period of 2009-2010, during which large-scale extensions have become available. The author conducts counterfactual experiments in which the estimated profiles for 2009-2010 are replaced by the hypothetical profiles inferred from the ones for 2004-2007. The results indicate that the benefit extensions in recent years have raised male workers' unemployment rate by 0.9-1.7 percentage points. Roughly 50-60 percent of the total increase is attributed to the effects on UE transition rates and the remaining part is accounted for by the effects on UN transition rates.

Keywords: Unemployment Duration, Unemployment Insurance, CPS

JEL Classification: J08, J64, J65