Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment

Tinbergen Institute Working Paper No. 97-050/3

53 Pages Posted: 16 Dec 1999  

Jaap H. Abbring

Tilburg University - Department of Econometrics & Operations Research; Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER); Tinbergen Institute; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Gerard J. van den Berg

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Tinbergen Institute

Jan C. van Ours

Tilburg University - Department of Economics; University of Melbourne - Department of Economics

Date Written: July 16, 1999

Abstract

In this paper, we study U.S. unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the Current Population Survey over the period 1968-1992. We estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data, both over time and between demographic groups, back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow. In turn, we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calendar time, duration, and demographic group. We particularly focus on the measurement and economic interpretation of the interaction of duration dependence of exit probabilities and the business cycle.

JEL Classification: C41, E32, J64

Suggested Citation

Abbring, Jaap H. and van den Berg, Gerard J. and van Ours, Jan C., Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment (July 16, 1999). Tinbergen Institute Working Paper No. 97-050/3. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=171435 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.171435

Jaap H. Abbring (Contact Author)

Tilburg University - Department of Econometrics & Operations Research ( email )

Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://center.uvt.nl/staff/abbring/

Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER) ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://center.uvt.nl/staff/abbring/

Tinbergen Institute

Roetersstraat 31
Amsterdam, 1018WB
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.tinbergen.nl

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Gerard J. Van den Berg

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
1081 HV Amsterdam
Netherlands
+31 20 444 6132 (Phone)
+32 20 444 6020 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Tinbergen Institute

Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands

Jan C. Van Ours

Tilburg University - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 2880 (Phone)
+31 13 466 3042 (Fax)

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics ( email )

Melbourne, 3010
Australia

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