Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment
Tinbergen Institute Working Paper No. 97-050/3
53 Pages Posted: 16 Dec 1999
Date Written: July 16, 1999
In this paper, we study U.S. unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the Current Population Survey over the period 1968-1992. We estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data, both over time and between demographic groups, back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow. In turn, we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calendar time, duration, and demographic group. We particularly focus on the measurement and economic interpretation of the interaction of duration dependence of exit probabilities and the business cycle.
JEL Classification: C41, E32, J64
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation