Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?

Tilburg University REFLECT Research Paper No. 10/003

36 Pages Posted: 26 Nov 2010

See all articles by Matteo Picchio

Matteo Picchio

Marche Polytechnic University - Department of Economic and Social Science; IZA Institute of Labor Economics; SHERPPA - Ghent University

Bart Cockx

Ghent University - Sherppa - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain

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Date Written: August 13, 2010

Abstract

This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lasting jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and lagged occurrence dependence. Second, in a simulation we find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within two years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lasting job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs.

Keywords: Event History Model, Transition Data, State Dependence, Short-Lived Jobs, Stepping Stone Effect, Long-Lasting Jobs

JEL Classification: C15, C41, J62, J64

Suggested Citation

Picchio, Matteo and Cockx, Bart L. W., Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs? (August 13, 2010). Tilburg University REFLECT Research Paper No. 10/003, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1715487 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1715487

Matteo Picchio (Contact Author)

Marche Polytechnic University - Department of Economic and Social Science ( email )

Piazzale Martelli, 8
60121 Ancona
Italy
+39 071 220 7176 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.univpm.it/matteo.picchio

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

SHERPPA - Ghent University ( email )

Tweekerkenstraat 2
Ghent, B-9000
Belgium

Bart L. W. Cockx

Ghent University - Sherppa - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Ghent, B-9000
Belgium

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain

Place Montesquieu, 3
Louvain-la-Neuve
Belgium

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