The Black-Litterman Model: Wrong Views v.s. Opportunity Cost

19 Pages Posted: 9 Dec 2010

See all articles by Ghislain Yanou

Ghislain Yanou

University of Paris-1 (CES/UG5/Finance)

Date Written: December 8, 2010


The formulation of the Black-Litterman model as a Bayesian mixed estimation approach allows for computing the posterior expected returns taking into account the views of investor on future returns. When the views turn out to be wrong, the resulting portfolio may lead to losses. Sometimes, it may be better for investor to keep in hands his (her) current allocation instead of following wrong views. However, keep the current allocation in hands suffers from the opportunity cost. In this paper, we develop an extension of the Black-Litterman model for reducing losses when the views of investor turn out to be wrong (or partially true).

Keywords: Black-Litterman, Bayesian Mixed Estimation, Opportunity Cost, Transaction Cost

JEL Classification: G11, G12, C11

Suggested Citation

Yanou, Ghislain, The Black-Litterman Model: Wrong Views v.s. Opportunity Cost (December 8, 2010). Available at SSRN: or

Ghislain Yanou (Contact Author)

University of Paris-1 (CES/UG5/Finance) ( email )

106 Bld de l'hôpital
Office 513
Paris, 75647
(+33)1-44-07-82-77 (Phone)
(+33)1-44-07-80-01 (Fax)

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