The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global CGE Assessment

50 Pages Posted: 18 Dec 2010

See all articles by Govinda R. Timilsina

Govinda R. Timilsina

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

John Beghin

University of Nebraska Lincoln Agricultural Economics; Iowa State University - Department of Economics

Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

World Bank

Simon Mevel

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Date Written: December 15, 2010

Abstract

We analyze the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi-country, multi-sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land-use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re-allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub-Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.

Keywords: biofuels, ethanol, biodiesel, land use, food supply, food prices, CGE model, impacts

JEL Classification: Q42, Q48, Q54, Q17, D58

Suggested Citation

Timilsina, Govinda R. and Beghin, John and van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique and Mevel, Simon, The Impacts of Biofuels Targets on Land-Use Change and Food Supply: A Global CGE Assessment (December 15, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1726187 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1726187

Govinda R. Timilsina

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H Street NW
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States

John Beghin (Contact Author)

University of Nebraska Lincoln Agricultural Economics ( email )

Lincoln, NE 68583
United States

Iowa State University - Department of Economics ( email )

383 Heady Hall
Ames, IA 50011
United States

Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-0052 (Phone)
202-522-1159 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/dvandermensbrugghe

Simon Mevel

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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