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Industry and Startup Experience on Entrepreneur Forecast Performance in New Firms

Gavin Cassar


November 1, 2012

I theoretically develop and empirically investigate the role of industry and startup experience on the forecast performance of 2,304 entrepreneurs who have started new businesses. Using the Kauffman Firm Survey I show that industry experience is associated with more accurate and less biased entrepreneur expectations. Further, the benefit of industry experience on entrepreneurial forecast performance is greater in high-technology industries. These findings are consistent with knowledge of the setting informing entrepreneurial decision making, especially in highly uncertain environments. However, in contrast to the prevailing view in the literature, I find no significant evidence that startup experience improves entrepreneurial forecast performance.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 44

Keywords: bias, entry, entrepreneur, expectations, experience, forecasting, growth, new firms, technology

JEL Classification: D80, D83, D84, M13

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Date posted: December 24, 2010 ; Last revised: October 4, 2013

Suggested Citation

Cassar, Gavin, Industry and Startup Experience on Entrepreneur Forecast Performance in New Firms (November 1, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1730318 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1730318

Contact Information

Gavin Cassar (Contact Author)
INSEAD ( email )
Boulevard de Constance
77305 Fontainebleau Cedex
HOME PAGE: http://www.insead.edu/facultyresearch/faculty/profiles/gcassar/

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