Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes

46 Pages Posted: 27 Dec 2010 Last revised: 29 May 2014

See all articles by Mehmet Balcilar

Mehmet Balcilar

Eastern Mediterranean University

Rangan Gupta

University of Pretoria - Department of Economics

Anandamayee Majumdar

Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences

Stephen M. Miller

University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics; University of Connecticut - Department of Economics

Date Written: July 29, 2010

Abstract

This paper provides out-of-sample forecasts of Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using a battery of linear and non-linear forecasting models and univariate and multivariate techniques. The linear models include vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models with and without Bayesian priors. The non-linear models include non-parametric and semi-parametric models, smooth transition autoregressive models and artificial neural network autoregressive models. In addition to gross gaming revenue and taxable sales, we employ recently constructed coincident and leading employment indexes for Nevada’s economy. We conclude that non-linear models generally outperform linear models in forecasting future movements in gross gaming revenue and taxable sales.

Keywords: Forecasting, Linear and Non-Linear Models, Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue, Nevada Taxable Sales

JEL Classification: C32, R31

Suggested Citation

Balcilar, Mehmet and Gupta, Rangan and Majumdar, Anandamayee and Miller, Stephen M., Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes (July 29, 2010). Empirical Economics, April 2013, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1730780 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1730780

Mehmet Balcilar

Eastern Mediterranean University ( email )

Gazimagusa
Turkey

HOME PAGE: http://www.mbalcilar.net

Rangan Gupta

University of Pretoria - Department of Economics ( email )

Lynnwood Road
Hillcrest
Pretoria, 0002
South Africa

Anandamayee Majumdar

Arizona State University (ASU) - School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences ( email )

Tempe, AZ 85287-1804
United States

Stephen M. Miller (Contact Author)

University of Nevada, Las Vegas - Department of Economics ( email )

4505 S. Maryland Parkway
Box 456005
Las Vegas, NV 89154
United States
702-895-3776 (Phone)
702-895-1354 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://faculty.unlv.edu/smiller/

University of Connecticut - Department of Economics

365 Fairfield Way, U-1063
Storrs, CT 06269-1063
United States

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