Structural Breaks, Parameter Uncertainty and Term Structure Puzzles
41 Pages Posted: 29 Dec 2010 Last revised: 20 May 2019
Date Written: October 2, 2010
We show that uncertainty about parameters of the short rate model can account for the rejections of the expectations hypothesis for the term structure of interest rates. We assume that agents employ Bayes rule to learn parameter values in the context of a model that is subject to stochastic structural breaks. We show that parameter uncertainty will also imply that the verdict on the expectations hypothesis will vary systematically with the term of the long bond, and the particular test employed, in the same way that is found in empirical tests.
Keywords: Change-Point, Learning, Expectations Hypothesis
JEL Classification: G12, G17
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation