Forecasting Migrant Remittances During the Global Financial Crisis

20 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Sanket Mohapatra

Sanket Mohapatra

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

Sanket Mohapatra

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Dilip Ratha

World Bank

Date Written: December 1, 2010

Abstract

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

Keywords: Remittances, Debt Markets, Currencies and Exchange Rates, Agriculture and Farming Systems, Emerging Markets

Suggested Citation

Mohapatra, Sanket and Mohapatra, Sanket and Ratha, Dilip, Forecasting Migrant Remittances During the Global Financial Crisis (December 1, 2010). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5512, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1734613

Sanket Mohapatra (Contact Author)

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad ( email )

IIM Old Campus
Vastrapur
Ahmedabad, Gujarat 380015
India

Sanket Mohapatra

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Dilip Ratha (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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