Volatility in Stocks Subject to Takeover Bids: Australian Evidence Using Daily Data
31 Pages Posted: 6 Jan 2011
Date Written: 2001
Using daily price and volume data on 112 of the largest takeover targets in Australia during the period 1985 to 1993, we find that conditional price volatility declines after the takeover announcement. This decline is greatest for targets of cash bids and smallest for targets of share-exchange bids. We argue that the phenomenon is due to convergence of trader opinion regarding the value of the target stock, and reflects a change in the price formation process that has not hitherto been recognised. Our findings have implications for event studies of takeovers that inappropriately assume a time-invariant risk-return relation, and also for regulatory policies in the market for corporate control.
Keywords: takeover targets, mergers and acquisitions, conditional volatility, ARCH, mixture of distributions model
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