Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper No. 2011-001B
41 Pages Posted: 5 Jan 2011 Last revised: 26 Jul 2011
Date Written: July 24, 2011
This article introduces the subject of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market, with emphasis on its importance for questions of market efficiency. “Technicians” view their craft, the study of price patterns, as exploiting traders’ psychological regularities. The literature on technical analysis has established that simple technical trading rules on dollar exchange rates provided 15 years of positive, risk-adjusted returns during the 1970s and 80s before those returns were extinguished. More recently, more complex and less studied rules have produced more modest returns for a similar length of time. Conventional explanations that rely on risk adjustment and/or central bank intervention do not plausibly justify the observed excess returns from following simple technical trading rules. Psychological biases, however, could contribute to the profitability of these rules. We view the observed pattern of excess returns to technical trading rules as being consistent with an adaptive markets view of the world.
Keywords: Exchange Rate, Technical Analysis, Technical Trading, Intervention, Efficient Markets Hypothesis, Adaptive Markets Hypothesis
JEL Classification: F31, G14, G11, G15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation