Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth

First International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure in Banff, Canada, August 2-3, 2006

24 Pages Posted: 5 Jan 2011 Last revised: 22 Jan 2011

See all articles by David Matthew Levinson

David Matthew Levinson

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Feng Xie

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

Norah Montes de Oca

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: October 1, 2009

Abstract

This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules. The main scenarios compare "stated decision rules", processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with "revealed decision rules", weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. We find that given the relatively small amount of funds available for network growth in a mature system, alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations and affect the trip time and spatial accessibility in a significantly different way.

Keywords: network, decision, forecasting, budget

JEL Classification: R41, R42

Suggested Citation

Levinson, David Matthew and Xie, Feng and Montes de Oca, Norah, Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth (October 1, 2009). First International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure in Banff, Canada, August 2-3, 2006. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1734920

David Matthew Levinson (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Feng Xie

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities ( email )

420 Delaware St. SE
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

Norah Montes de Oca

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
32
Abstract Views
958
PlumX Metrics