Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth
First International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure in Banff, Canada, August 2-3, 2006
24 Pages Posted: 5 Jan 2011 Last revised: 22 Jan 2011
Date Written: October 1, 2009
This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules. The main scenarios compare "stated decision rules", processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with "revealed decision rules", weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. We find that given the relatively small amount of funds available for network growth in a mature system, alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations and affect the trip time and spatial accessibility in a significantly different way.
Keywords: network, decision, forecasting, budget
JEL Classification: R41, R42
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation