Post-Construction Evaluation of Traffic Forecast Accuracy

Transport Policy, Vol. 17, pp. 428-443 , 2010

88th Transportation Research Board Conference, January 2009

16 Pages Posted: 7 Jan 2011 Last revised: 22 Jan 2011

See all articles by Pavithra Parthasarathi

Pavithra Parthasarathi

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

David Matthew Levinson

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: January 1, 2009

Abstract

This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. Based on recent research on forecast accuracy, the inaccuracy of the traffic forecasts is estimated as the difference between forecast traffic and actual traffic, standardized by the actual traffic. The analysis indicates a general tend of underestimation in roadway traffic forecasts with factors such as roadway type, functional classification and direction playing an influencing role. Roadways with higher volumes and higher functional classifications such as freeways are underestimated compared to lower volume roadways and lower functional classifications. The comparison of demographic forecasts shows a trend of overestimation while the comparison of travel behavior characteristics indicates a lack of incorporation of fundamental societal changes.

Keywords: Transportation demand forecasting, project evaluation, forecast accuracy, model evaluation

JEL Classification: R40, R41, C53

Suggested Citation

Parthasarathi, Pavithra and Levinson, David Matthew, Post-Construction Evaluation of Traffic Forecast Accuracy (January 1, 2009). Transport Policy, Vol. 17, pp. 428-443 , 2010; 88th Transportation Research Board Conference, January 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1735501

Pavithra Parthasarathi

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities ( email )

420 Delaware St. SE
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

David Matthew Levinson (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
36
Abstract Views
558
PlumX Metrics