Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight

International Journal Technology Intelligence and Planning, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 220-239, 2005

20 Pages Posted: 8 Jan 2011

See all articles by Dana Mietzner

Dana Mietzner

Technical University of Applied Sciences Wildau

Guido Reger

University of Applied Sciences Brandenburg - Institute for Innovation and Internationalization

Date Written: 2005

Abstract

Scenarios, as a prime technique of future studies, have long been used by government planners, corporate managers and military analysts as powerful tools to aid in decision making in the face of uncertainty. The idea behind them is to establish thinking about possible futures which can minimise surprises and broaden the span of managers’ thinking about different possibilities. Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point - they have become extremely popular. This paper attempts to shed light on differences in scenario approaches. It will describe the origin of scenarios and the development of different understandings and purposes for managers. Categories are developed to compare the different ways scenarios are performed. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches are analysed.

Keywords: scenario technique, scenario building, innovation strategy, technology planning

JEL Classification: 032

Suggested Citation

Mietzner, Dana and Reger, Guido, Advantages and Disadvantages of Scenario Approaches for Strategic Foresight (2005). International Journal Technology Intelligence and Planning, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 220-239, 2005, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1736110

Dana Mietzner (Contact Author)

Technical University of Applied Sciences Wildau ( email )

Hochschulring 1
Wildau, DE 15745
Germany
+49-3375-508-199 (Phone)

Guido Reger

University of Applied Sciences Brandenburg - Institute for Innovation and Internationalization ( email )

Brandenburg/Havel, 14770
Germany

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