24 Pages Posted: 8 Jan 2011 Last revised: 22 Feb 2012
Date Written: February 21, 2012
We analyze a large and comprehensive play-by-play dataset of professional games in the National Basketball Association using tools from financial economics to explore the optimality of strategically idling resources in the face of uncertain future demand. We find that starters ought to be idled by the coach on a "Q 1" basis, meaning that a starter has one more foul than the current quarter, when the future option value is high or the value of the replacement player is high. We use a novel win-probability approach that can be easily extended to other applications.
Keywords: Basketball, Sports, NBA, Win Probability, Fouls, Foul Trouble, Strategic Idling
JEL Classification: L83, G19
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Maymin, Allan and Maymin, Philip and Shen, Eugene, How Much Trouble is Early Foul Trouble? Strategically Idling Resources in the NBA (February 21, 2012). NYU Poly Research Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1736633 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1736633
By Shawn Ulrick