How Much Trouble is Early Foul Trouble? Strategically Idling Resources in the NBA

Maymin, Allan; Maymin, Philip; Shen, Eugene

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1736633

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How Much Trouble is Early Foul Trouble? Strategically Idling Resources in the NBA

NYU Poly Research Paper

24 Pages Posted: 8 Jan 2011 Last revised: 22 Feb 2012

See all articles by Allan Maymin

Philip Maymin

Fairfield University - Charles F. Dolan School of Business; Athletes Unlimited

Eugene Shen

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: February 21, 2012

Abstract

We analyze a large and comprehensive play-by-play dataset of professional games in the National Basketball Association using tools from financial economics to explore the optimality of strategically idling resources in the face of uncertain future demand. We find that starters ought to be idled by the coach on a "Q 1" basis, meaning that a starter has one more foul than the current quarter, when the future option value is high or the value of the replacement player is high. We use a novel win-probability approach that can be easily extended to other applications.

Keywords: Basketball, Sports, NBA, Win Probability, Fouls, Foul Trouble, Strategic Idling

JEL Classification: L83, G19

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Maymin, Allan and Maymin, Philip and Shen, Eugene, How Much Trouble is Early Foul Trouble? Strategically Idling Resources in the NBA (February 21, 2012). NYU Poly Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1736633 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1736633