International Evidence on GFC-Robust Forecasts for Risk Management Under the Basel Accord

39 Pages Posted: 16 Jan 2011

See all articles by Michael McAleer

Michael McAleer

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute; Tinbergen Institute; University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Juan-Angel Jiménez-Martin

Complutense University of Madrid

Teodosio Perez Amaral

Complutense University of Madrid - Facultad de Económicas y Empresariales

Date Written: January 16, 2011

Abstract

A risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. Such a risk management strategy is robust to the GFC in the sense that, while maintaining the same risk management strategy before, during and after a financial crisis, it will lead to comparatively low daily capital charges and violation penalties for the entire period. This paper presents evidence to support the claim that the median point forecast of VaR is generally GFC-robust. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria. In the empirical analysis, we choose several major indexes, namely French CAC, German DAX, US Dow Jones, UK FTSE100, Hong Kong Hang Seng, Spanish Ibex35, Japanese Nikkei, Swiss SMI and US S&P500. The GARCH, EGARCH, GJR and Riskmetrics models, as well as several other strategies, are used in the comparison. Backtesting is performed on each of these indexes using the Basel II Accord regulations for 2008-10 to examine the performance of the Median strategy in terms of the number of violations and daily capital charges, among other criteria. The Median is shown to be a profitable and safe strategy for risk management, both in calm and turbulent periods, as it provides a reasonable number of violations and daily capital charges. The Median also performs well when both total losses and the asymmetric linear tick loss function are considered.

Keywords: Median Strategy, Value-at-Risk (VaR), Daily Capital Charges, Robust Forecasts, Violation Penalties, Optimizing Strategy, Aggressive Risk Management, Conservative Risk Management, Basel II Accord, Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

JEL Classification: G32, G11, G17, C53, C22

Suggested Citation

McAleer, Michael and Jiménez-Martin, Juan-Angel and Perez Amaral, Teodosio, International Evidence on GFC-Robust Forecasts for Risk Management Under the Basel Accord (January 16, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1741565 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1741565

Michael McAleer

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute ( email )

Rotterdam
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute

Rotterdam
Netherlands

University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Tokyo
Japan

Juan-Angel Jiménez-Martin (Contact Author)

Complutense University of Madrid ( email )

Complutense University of Madrid
Campus de somosaguas
Pozuelo de Alarcon, Madrid 28223
Spain
+34 91 3942355 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ucm.es/fundamentos-analisis-economico2/jajm

Teodosio Perez Amaral

Complutense University of Madrid - Facultad de Económicas y Empresariales ( email )

Madrid, 28223
Spain

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