Measuring the Impact of the GFC on European Equity Markets

10 Pages Posted: 21 Jan 2011

See all articles by George Milunovich

George Milunovich

Macquarie University - Department of Economics; Macquarie University, Macquarie Business School

Date Written: January 19, 2011

Abstract

I investigate the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on the returns and volatilities of eleven major European share markets, and test the proposition that the GFC developed over two stages: a subprime mortgage crisis (pre-Lehman), and a more severe global liquidity shortage phase (post-Lehman). Significant structural breaks are found in the returns and volatilities associated with the two stages of the crisis. However, while there is strong statistical evidence suggesting that Phase 2 of the GFC experienced higher volatility levels than Phase 1, we are unable to reject the null that the impact on the returns was equal across the two stages. Further, it appears that the mean of the return series over the post-GFC period has returned to its pre-crisis level for all markets, whereas post-GFC volatilities remain statistically higher than their pre-crisis averages for ten of the eleven markets studied.

Keywords: GFC, European Equities, Structural Breaks, EGARCH

JEL Classification: G15, C22

Suggested Citation

Milunovich, George, Measuring the Impact of the GFC on European Equity Markets (January 19, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1743801 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1743801

George Milunovich (Contact Author)

Macquarie University - Department of Economics ( email )

Sydney NSW 2109
Australia

Macquarie University, Macquarie Business School ( email )

New South Wales 2109
Australia

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