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Freeway Origin Destination Matrices, Not as Simple as They Seem

Transportation Research Board 83rd Annual Meeting, 2003

22 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2011  

Satyanarayana Muthuswamy

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

Gary A. Davis

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Civil Engineering

David Matthew Levinson

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Panos G. Michalpolous

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

Date Written: June 28, 2002

Abstract

Travel demand can be elegantly represented using an Origin-Destination (OD) matrix. The link counts observed on the network are produced by the underlying travel demand. One could use these counts to reconstruct the OD matrix. An offline approach to estimate a static OD matrix over the peak period for freeway sections using these counts is proposed in this research. Almost all the offline methods use linear models to approximate the relationship between the on-ramp and off-ramp counts. Previous work indicates that the use of a traffic flow model embedded in a search routine performs better than these linear models. In this research that approach is enhanced using a microscopic traffic simulator, AIMSUN, and a gradient based optimization routine, MINOS, interfaced to estimate an OD matrix. This approach is an application of the Prediction Error Minimization (PEM) method. The problem is non-linear and nonsmooth, and the optimization routine finds multiple local minima, but cannot guarantee a global minima. However, with a number of starting "seed" matrices, an OD matrix with a good fit in terms of reproducing traffic counts can be estimated. The dominance of the mainline counts in the OD estimation and an identifiability issue is indicated from the experiments. The quality of the estimates improves as the specification error, introduced due to the discrepancy between the traffic flow model and the real world process that generates the on-ramp and off-ramp counts, reduces.

Keywords: travel demand, OD estimation, simulation, optimization

JEL Classification: R40, R41, E17

Suggested Citation

Muthuswamy, Satyanarayana and Davis, Gary A. and Levinson, David Matthew and Michalpolous, Panos G., Freeway Origin Destination Matrices, Not as Simple as They Seem (June 28, 2002). Transportation Research Board 83rd Annual Meeting, 2003. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1748573

Satyanarayana Muthuswamy

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities ( email )

420 Delaware St. SE
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

Gary A. Davis

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Department of Civil Engineering ( email )

500 Pillsbury, SE
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States
+1 612-625-2598 (Phone)
+1 612-626-7750 (Fax)

David Matthew Levinson (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Panos G. Michalpolous

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities ( email )

500 Pillsbury Drive S.E
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States

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