Forecasting U.S. Investment

34 Pages Posted: 1 Feb 2011

See all articles by Jaewoo Lee

Jaewoo Lee

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

Pau Rabanal

International Monetary Fund

Date Written: November 2010

Abstract

The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010, with consumption and particularly investment expected to be important contributors to growth. The strength of U.S. investment will hence be a crucial issue for the U.S. and global recovery. On the basis of several traditional models of investment, we forecast that the U.S. investment in equipment and software will grow by about 10 percent on average over the 2010-12 period. The contribution of investment to real GDP growth will be 0.8 percentage points on average over the same period.

Keywords: Demand, Economic forecasting, Economic growth, Economic models, Industrial investment, Information technology, Private consumption, Private sector, Software, United States

Suggested Citation

Lee, Jaewoo and Rabanal, Pau, Forecasting U.S. Investment (November 2010). IMF Working Papers, Vol. , pp. 1-33, 2010. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1750735

Jaewoo Lee (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States
202-623-7331 (Phone)
202-623-6334 (Fax)

Pau Rabanal

International Monetary Fund ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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