Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter

38 Pages Posted: 1 Feb 2011

See all articles by Jaromír Beneš

Jaromír Beneš

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Kevin Clinton

Government of Canada - Bank of Canada

Roberto Garcia-Saltos

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Marianne Johnson

Independent

Douglas Laxton

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

Peter B. Manchev

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Troy Matheson

Government of New Zealand - Department of Economics

Date Written: December 2010

Abstract

This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.

Keywords: Cross country analysis, Economic growth, Economic models, Financial crisis, Fiscal policy, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Industrial production, Inflation, Monetary policy, Unemployment

Suggested Citation

Beneš, Jaromír and Clinton, Kevin and Garcia-Saltos, Roberto and Johnson, Marianne and Laxton, Douglas and Manchev, Peter Bogomilov and Matheson, Troy, Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter (December 2010). IMF Working Paper No. 10/285, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1751398

Jaromír Beneš (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Kevin Clinton

Government of Canada - Bank of Canada ( email )

234 Wellington Street
Ontario, Ottawa K1A 0G9
Canada
613-782-8766 (Phone)
613-782 7508 (Fax)

Roberto Garcia-Saltos

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Marianne Johnson

Independent ( email )

Douglas Laxton

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Peter Bogomilov Manchev

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Troy Matheson

Government of New Zealand - Department of Economics ( email )

2 The Terrace
P.O. Box 2498
Wellington
New Zealand

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