How Many Chronically Poor People are There in the World? Some Preliminary Estimates

18 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2011

See all articles by Andrew McKay

Andrew McKay

University of Bath - Department of Economics; University of Nottingham - Centre for Research on Economic Development and International Trade (CREDIT)

Bob Baulch

International Food Policy Research Institute

Mehtap Hisarciklilar

affiliation not provided to SSRN

David Lawson

University of Manchester

Date Written: 2004

Abstract

This background paper provides some preliminary estimates of the global incidence of chronic poverty for the Chronic Poverty Report 2004-05. We define chronic poverty as remaining below the poverty line for at least five years, with welfare measured in expenditure or income terms. Using the latest estimates on the magnitude of static dollar a day poverty available from the World Bank and panel data estimates of the unconditional probabilities of the currently poor staying poor, we estimate the number of people who are chronically poor by region. This is an inherently imprecise exercise that suffers from both measurement error and the need to make a number of very strong assumptions. Nonetheless, our best "guesstimate" is that there were between 300 and 420m people worldwide living in chronic poverty in the late 1990s.

Keywords: international comparisons, data

Suggested Citation

McKay, Andrew and Baulch, Bob and Hisarciklilar, Mehtap and Lawson, David, How Many Chronically Poor People are There in the World? Some Preliminary Estimates (2004). Chronic Poverty Research Centre Working Paper No. 45. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1754407 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1754407

Andrew McKay (Contact Author)

University of Bath - Department of Economics ( email )

Claverton Down
Bath, BA2 7AY
United Kingdom

University of Nottingham - Centre for Research on Economic Development and International Trade (CREDIT) ( email )

School of Economics
Nottingham, NG7 2RD
United Kingdom

Bob Baulch

International Food Policy Research Institute ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

Mehtap Hisarciklilar

affiliation not provided to SSRN

David Lawson

University of Manchester

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

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