The Factor-Spline-GARCH Model for High- and Low-Frequency Correlations
49 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2011 Last revised: 15 Nov 2013
Date Written: January 31, 2011
We propose a new approach to model high- and low-frequency components of equity correlations. Our framework combines a factor asset pricing structure with other specifications capturing dynamic properties of volatilities and covariances between a single common factor and idiosyncratic returns. High-frequency correlations mean revert to slowly varying functions that characterize long-term correlation patterns. We associate such term behavior with low-frequency economic variables, including determinants of market and idiosyncratic volatilities. Flexibility in the time-varying level of mean reversion improves both the empirical fit of equity correlations in the U.S. and correlation forecasts at long horizons.
Keywords: Factor models, Dynamic correlation, Spline-GARCH, DCC, Idiosyncratic volatility, Time-varying betas, Long-term forecast evaluation.
JEL Classification: C32, C51, C53, G11, G12
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