Do Maximizers Predict Better than Satisficers?

35 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2011 Last revised: 25 Apr 2012

See all articles by Kriti Jain

Kriti Jain

Independent

Joseph Neil Bearden

INSEAD - Decision Sciences

Allan Filipowicz

Independent

Date Written: February 4, 2011

Abstract

We examined the relationship between maximizing (i.e. seeking the best) versus satisficing (i.e.seeking the good enough) tendencies and forecasting ability in a real-world prediction task: forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. In Studies 1 and 2, participants gave probabilistic forecasts for the outcomes of the tournament, and also completed a measure of maximizing tendencies. We found that although maximizers expected themselves to outperform others much more than satisficers, they actually forecasted more poorly. Hence, on net, they were more overconfident. The differences in forecasting abilities seem to be driven by the maximizers’ tendency to give more variable probability estimates. In Study 3, participants played a betting task where they could select between safe and uncertain gambles linked to World Cup outcomes. Again, maximizers did more poorly and earned less, because of a higher variance in their responses. This research contributes to the growing literature on maximizing tendencies by expanding the range of objective outcomes over which maximizing has an influence, and further showing that there may be substantial upside to being a satisficer.

Keywords: Maximizing, Satisficing, Forecasting, Predictions, Overconfidence

Suggested Citation

Jain, Kriti and Bearden, Joseph Neil and Filipowicz, Allan, Do Maximizers Predict Better than Satisficers? (February 4, 2011). INSEAD Working Paper No. 2011/18/DS/OB. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1754927 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1754927

Kriti Jain (Contact Author)

Independent

No Address Available
United States

Joseph Neil Bearden

INSEAD - Decision Sciences ( email )

United States

Allan Filipowicz

Independent

No Address Available
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
105
Abstract Views
1,001
rank
268,560
PlumX Metrics