Comments on 'Getting Scarred and Winning Lotteries: Effects of Exemplar Cuing and Statistical Format on Imagining Low-Probability Events,' by Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes (2008)

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 22, p. 523, 2009

Northwestern Public Law Research Paper No. 11-22

6 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2011

See all articles by Jonathan J. Koehler

Jonathan J. Koehler

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law

Laura Macchi

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for Interdisciplinary Studies in Economics, Psychology & Social Sciences (CISEPS)

Date Written: February 9, 2009

Abstract

Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes (NMH) conduct three experiments designed to test whether exemplar cuing (EC) theory or a statistical format theory provides a more accurate account for how people make judgments about low-probability events. They report finding support for the statistical format theory and little or no support for EC. However, NMH misstate the requirements for the production of exemplars in EC theory. As a result, they confuse non-exemplar conditions with exemplar conditions in their experiments, and find results that are virtually irrelevant to EC theory.

Keywords: exemplar cuing, low-probability events, imaginability, exemplars

JEL Classification: K10, K19, K30, K39

Suggested Citation

Koehler, Jonathan J. and Macchi, Laura, Comments on 'Getting Scarred and Winning Lotteries: Effects of Exemplar Cuing and Statistical Format on Imagining Low-Probability Events,' by Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes (2008) (February 9, 2009). Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 22, p. 523, 2009; Northwestern Public Law Research Paper No. 11-22. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1756503

Jonathan J. Koehler

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law ( email )

375 E. Chicago Ave
Chicago, IL 60611
United States

Laura Macchi (Contact Author)

Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for Interdisciplinary Studies in Economics, Psychology & Social Sciences (CISEPS) ( email )

Piazza dell'Ateneo Nuovo, 1
Milano, 20126
Italy

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