Alternative Projection of the World Energy Consumption - In Comparison with the 2010 International Energy Outlook

7 Pages Posted: 20 Feb 2011 Last revised: 10 Jun 2018

See all articles by Yu Sang Chang

Yu Sang Chang

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics

Jinsoo Lee

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Hyerim Yoon

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Date Written: July 30, 2012

Abstract

A projection of future energy consumption is a vital input to many analyses of economic, energy, and environmental policies. We provide a benchmark projection which can be used to evaluate any other projection. Specifically, we base our projection of future energy consumption on its historical trend, which can be identified by an experience model. We compare our projection with forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for eight countries - the U.S., China, India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico. We find that the EIA’s projections are lower than ours in the case of China, the U.S., India, Japan, and Mexico. This indicates that for these five countries, the EIA uses assumptions which cannot be rationalized by historical data.

Keywords: Energy Consumption, Experience Model

Suggested Citation

Chang, Yu Sang and Lee, Jinsoo and Yoon, Hyerim, Alternative Projection of the World Energy Consumption - In Comparison with the 2010 International Energy Outlook (July 30, 2012). Energy Policy 50 (2012) 154-160, KDI School of Pub Policy & Management Paper No. 12-08, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1761094 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1761094

Yu Sang Chang (Contact Author)

Gachon University - College of Business and Economics ( email )

Korea

Jinsoo Lee

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

P.O. Box 184
Seoul, 130-868
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)
822-3299-1060 (Phone)
822-968-5072 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.kdischool.ac.kr

Hyerim Yoon

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

Seoul
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)
0082-10-2297-8944 (Phone)

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