Comment: Experts Who Don't Know They Don't Know

Interfaces, Vol. 37, p. 296, 2007

Northwestern Law & Econ Research Paper No. 11-26

5 Pages Posted: 18 Feb 2011

Date Written: February 15, 2011

Abstract

Sadly, the conclusion reached by Green and Armstrong (2006) – that experts should not be used for predicting the decisions that people will make in conflicts – comes as no surprise. Decades ago, Armstrong himself taught us that expertise beyond a minimal level does not improve judgmental accuracy across a variety of domains (Armstrong, 1980). More recently, Tetlock (2006) drove home the point in a study of hundreds of political experts who made thousands of forecasts over many years. Like Green and Armstrong (2006), Tetlock (2006) found that that expert forecasts were frequently inaccurate. In a nod to Armstrong’s previous work, Tetlock (2006) suggests that avid readers of the New York Times should be able to predict political events as well as highly trained experts.

Keywords: forecasting

JEL Classification: D84, D81

Suggested Citation

Koehler, Jonathan J., Comment: Experts Who Don't Know They Don't Know (February 15, 2011). Interfaces, Vol. 37, p. 296, 2007; Northwestern Law & Econ Research Paper No. 11-26. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1762325

Jonathan J. Koehler (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law ( email )

375 E. Chicago Ave
Chicago, IL 60611
United States

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