Comment: Experts Who Don't Know They Don't Know
Interfaces, Vol. 37, p. 296, 2007
5 Pages Posted: 18 Feb 2011
Date Written: February 15, 2011
Sadly, the conclusion reached by Green and Armstrong (2006) – that experts should not be used for predicting the decisions that people will make in conflicts – comes as no surprise. Decades ago, Armstrong himself taught us that expertise beyond a minimal level does not improve judgmental accuracy across a variety of domains (Armstrong, 1980). More recently, Tetlock (2006) drove home the point in a study of hundreds of political experts who made thousands of forecasts over many years. Like Green and Armstrong (2006), Tetlock (2006) found that that expert forecasts were frequently inaccurate. In a nod to Armstrong’s previous work, Tetlock (2006) suggests that avid readers of the New York Times should be able to predict political events as well as highly trained experts.
JEL Classification: D84, D81
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation