International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective

31 Pages Posted: 1 Mar 2011

See all articles by Michael D. Bordo

Michael D. Bordo

Rutgers University, New Brunswick - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Thomas Helbling

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Middle East and Central Asia Department

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 21, 2011

Abstract

We analyze the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century that has occurred across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding contrasts with the mixed results reported in the recent literature, which has focused on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years. Examining the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the rising synchronization, we find that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.

Suggested Citation

Bordo, Michael D. and Helbling, Thomas, International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective (February 21, 2011). The Manchester School, Vol. 79, Issue 2, pp. 208-238, 2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1773238 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2010.02236.x

Michael D. Bordo (Contact Author)

Rutgers University, New Brunswick - Department of Economics ( email )

New Brunswick, NJ
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Thomas Helbling

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Middle East and Central Asia Department ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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