Download this Paper Open PDF in Browser

One is Not Enough! Understanding World Trade Collapses

Institute of Social Studies Working Paper

40 Pages Posted: 13 Mar 2011 Last revised: 15 Mar 2011

Peter A. G. van Bergeijk

Erasmus University - Institute of Social Studies (ISS); CERES, Research School for Resource Studies for Development

Date Written: March 8, 2011

Abstract

In order to put the mainstream narrative for the recent world trade collapse into a consistent economic-historic framework, this paper builds a comparable data set for the analysis of world trade collapses consisting of 72 periods of import decline (27 in the 1930s; 45 in 2008-10). The empirical analysis explains about three quarters of cross-country variance and supports the emerging professional consensus that identifies the decrease in domestic demand and the share of manufacturing trade as key determinants of the severity of a world trade collapse, but the paper also reveals significant differences between the 1930s and the 2000s. Both the demand shock and the composition effect are comparatively speaking less important in the recent trade collapse. The paper identifies country-specific determinants (level of development, political system and openness) that have not (yet) been considered in the mainstream narrative for the recent world trade collapse.

Keywords: World trade collapse, deglobalization, economic history, value chains, 1930s, 2008-2010 economic history, comparative analysis, international political economy

JEL Classification: F01, F10, G01, N70

Suggested Citation

van Bergeijk, Peter A. G., One is Not Enough! Understanding World Trade Collapses (March 8, 2011). Institute of Social Studies Working Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1781175 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1781175

Peter Van Bergeijk (Contact Author)

Erasmus University - Institute of Social Studies (ISS) ( email )

PO Box 29776
2502 LT The Hague, 2518 AX
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.economie.blogspot.com

CERES, Research School for Resource Studies for Development

Vredenburg 138
Utrecht, 3511 BG
Netherlands

Paper statistics

Downloads
79
Rank
265,280
Abstract Views
666