Explosive Behavior in the 1990s' NASDAQ: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?

26 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2011

See all articles by Peter C. B. Phillips

Peter C. B. Phillips

Yale University - Cowles Foundation; University of Auckland; University of Southampton; Singapore Management University - School of Economics

Yangru Wu

Rutgers University, Newark - School of Business - Department of Finance & Economics

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Abstract

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the NASDAQ stock price index in the 1990s provides confirmation of explosiveness and date stamps the origination of financial exuberance to mid-1995, prior to the famous remark in December 1996 by Alan Greenspan about irrational exuberance in the financial market, thereby giving the remark empirical content.

Suggested Citation

Phillips, Peter C. B. and Wu, Yangru, Explosive Behavior in the 1990s' NASDAQ: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?. International Economic Review, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 201-226, 2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1781598 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2010.00625.x

Peter C. B. Phillips (Contact Author)

Yale University - Cowles Foundation ( email )

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Yangru Wu

Rutgers University, Newark - School of Business - Department of Finance & Economics ( email )

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