The Baltic Dry Index as a Predictor of Global Stock Returns, Commodity Returns, and Global Economic Activity

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to show that the growth rate of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has predictive ability for a range of stock markets, which is demonstrated through in-sample tests and out-of-sample statistics.

The documented stock return predictability is also of economic significance, as seen by examining the certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios of portfolio strategies that exploit the BDI growth rate. In addition, the BDI growth rate predicts the returns of commodity indexes, and we find some evidence for joint predictability of stock and commodity returns in a system of predictive regressions. Finally, the BDI growth rate predicts the growth in global economic activity, establishing further BDI’s role in revealing a link between the real and financial sectors.

Keywords: Baltic Dry Index, global stock markets, commodity returns, global real economic activity, predictive regressions, out-of-sample statistic, economic significance

JEL Classification: C23, C53, G11, G12, G13, C5, D24, D34