The Baltic Dry Index as a Predictor of Global Stock Returns, Commodity Returns, and Global Economic Activity

52 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2011  

Gurdip Bakshi

University of Maryland - Robert H. Smith School of Business

George Panayotov

Hong Kong University of Science & Technology (HKUST)

Georgios Skoulakis

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Division of Finance

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 26, 2011

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to show that the growth rate of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has predictive ability for a range of stock markets, which is demonstrated through in-sample tests and out-of-sample statistics.

The documented stock return predictability is also of economic significance, as seen by examining the certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios of portfolio strategies that exploit the BDI growth rate. In addition, the BDI growth rate predicts the returns of commodity indexes, and we find some evidence for joint predictability of stock and commodity returns in a system of predictive regressions. Finally, the BDI growth rate predicts the growth in global economic activity, establishing further BDI’s role in revealing a link between the real and financial sectors.

Keywords: Baltic Dry Index, global stock markets, commodity returns, global real economic activity, predictive regressions, out-of-sample statistic, economic significance

JEL Classification: C23, C53, G11, G12, G13, C5, D24, D34

Suggested Citation

Bakshi, Gurdip and Panayotov, George and Skoulakis, Georgios, The Baltic Dry Index as a Predictor of Global Stock Returns, Commodity Returns, and Global Economic Activity (January 26, 2011). AFA 2012 Chicago Meetings Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1787757 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1787757

Gurdip S. Bakshi

University of Maryland - Robert H. Smith School of Business ( email )

Department of Finance
College Park, MD 20742-1815
United States
301-405-2261 (Phone)
301-314-9157 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://scholar.rhsmith.umd.edu/gbakshi/Home?destination=Home

George Panayotov

Hong Kong University of Science & Technology (HKUST) ( email )

Clearwater Bay
Kowloon
Hong Kong
852-2358-5049 (Phone)
852-2358-1749 (Fax)

Georgios Skoulakis (Contact Author)

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Division of Finance ( email )

2053 Main Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2
Canada

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