Food Prices and Political Instability

23 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2011

See all articles by Rabah Arezki

Rabah Arezki

World Bank - African Development Bank

Markus Bruckner

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 2011

Abstract

We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict. In the High Income Countries variations in the international food prices have no significant effects on democratic institutions and measures of intra-state conflict. Our empirical results point to a significant externality of variations in international food prices on Low Income Countries' social and political stability.

Keywords: Agricultural prices, Cross country analysis, Economic models, Food production, Low-income developing countries, Political economy

Suggested Citation

Arezki, Rabah and Bruckner, Markus, Food Prices and Political Instability (March 2011). IMF Working Paper No. 11/62, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1795821

Rabah Arezki (Contact Author)

World Bank - African Development Bank ( email )

15 Avenue du Ghana
P.O.Box 323-1002
Tunis-Belvedère
Tunisia

Markus Bruckner

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain

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