Too Little Too Late: Welfare Impacts of Rainfall Shocks in Rural Indonesia

22 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

Date Written: March 1, 2011

Abstract

The authors use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impact of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. In particular, they consider two shocks: (i) a delay in the onset of monsoon and (ii) a significant shortfall in the amount of rain in the 90 day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, the analysis finds that a delay in the monsoon onset does not have a significant impact on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Rice farm households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks at the expense of lower nonfood expenditures per capita. The authors use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the welfare impact of this type of shock. Access to credit and public works projects in communities were among the programs with the strongest moderating effects. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.

Keywords: Science of Climate Change, Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases, Housing & Human Habitats, Rural Poverty Reduction, Regional Economic Development

Suggested Citation

Skoufias, Emmanuel and Essama-Nssah, B. and Katayama, Roy, Too Little Too Late: Welfare Impacts of Rainfall Shocks in Rural Indonesia (March 1, 2011). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5615, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1799162

Emmanuel Skoufias (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

B. Essama-Nssah

World Bank ( email )

Washington, DC 20433
United States

Roy Katayama

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
64
Abstract Views
568
rank
382,366
PlumX Metrics