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When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China

50 Pages Posted: 4 Apr 2011  

Barry Eichengreen

University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research

Kwanho Shin

Korea University

Date Written: March 2011

Abstract

Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

Eichengreen, Barry and Park, Donghyun and Shin, Kwanho, When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China (March 2011). NBER Working Paper No. w16919. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1801089

Barry Eichengreen (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Kwanho Shin

Korea University ( email )

1 Anam-dong 5 ka
Sunbuk-Ku, Department of Economics
Seoul 136-701
Korea
82-2-3290-2220 (Phone)
82-2-3290-2719 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: econ.korea.ac.kr/~khshin

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