Portfolio Allocation for Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Shadow of Commodity Based National Wealth

23 Pages Posted: 11 Apr 2011

Date Written: February 28, 2011

Abstract

Most sovereign wealth funds depend heavily on oil revenues to increase the capital base. Research on the investment performance of sovereign wealth funds however has focused on the returns to their financial asset portfolio. Given their reliance on the monetization of natural resource to increase the financial assets, it would better to account for national wealth returns by including oil price movement as a weighted part of the total portfolio. To correct for this, we simulate a dynamic portfolio maximizing risk adjusted returns across a large asset basket accounting for the continual depletion of natural resource assets. We find that given the large volatility and continual depletion of oil as a portion of the national wealth, sovereign wealth funds would be best served investing in low volatility liquid fixed income and equity indexes to balance their portfolio. Even when allowing for three asset portfolios, returns are only maximized when oil as a percentage of national wealth drops to approximately 50%.

Keywords: sovereign wealth funds, portfolio allocation, national wealth, oil surplus, simulation

JEL Classification: G11, G15, G17, G18

Suggested Citation

Balding, Christopher, Portfolio Allocation for Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Shadow of Commodity Based National Wealth (February 28, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1805297 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1805297

Christopher Balding (Contact Author)

Fulbright University Vietnam ( email )

Vietnam

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