Russian Economic Report No. 18, March 2009
25 Pages Posted: 10 Apr 2011
Date Written: March 1, 2009
The world has entered the first global recession since the Second World War. The impact of the crisis worldwide is proving far deeper and broader than previously thought. The impact on Russia has been accentuated by its structural vulnerabilities: dependence on the oil and gas sector, a narrow industrial base and limited small and medium-size enterprise sector. As a result, Russia’s real GDP is likely to contract in 2009 by 4.5 percent. The fiscal space for further support to the economy has shrunk but the government will be able to finance its fiscal deficit thanks to its large fiscal reserves. Russia’s early fiscal policy response has been proactive, larger than that of many other G-20 countries and greater than the internationally recommended 2 percent of GDP. Reflecting the early crisis impact, policy has so far focused mainly on supporting the financial sector and enterprises. Future policy response will have to be more selective, cushioning the impact on the vulnerable, addressing the most critical infrastructure bottlenecks, and supporting small and medium size enterprises.
Keywords: Russia, Russian economy, growth, employment, poverty, inflation
JEL Classification: E1, O1, O11, O12, O52, P30
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation