The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility

25 Pages Posted: 10 Apr 2011

See all articles by Gerald A. Carlino

Gerald A. Carlino

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Robert H. DeFina

Villanova University

Keith Sill

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 1, 2011

Abstract

This study documents a general decline in the volatility of employment growth during the period 1956 to 2002 and examines its possible sources. The authors use a panel design that exploits the considerable state-level variation in volatility during the period. The roles of monetary policy, oil prices, industrial employment shifts and a coincident index of business cycle variables are explored. Overall, these four variables taken together explain as much as 31 percent of the fluctuations in employment growth volatility. Individually, each of the four factors is found to have significantly contributed to fluctuations in employment growth volatility, although to differing degrees.

Suggested Citation

Carlino, Gerald A. and DeFina, Robert H. and Sill, Keith, The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility (April 1, 2011). FRB of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 11-16. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1805856 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1805856

Gerald A. Carlino (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ( email )

Ten Independence Mall
Philadelphia, PA 19106-1574
United States
215-574-6434 (Phone)
215-574-4364 (Fax)

Robert H. DeFina

Villanova University ( email )

Villanova, PA 19085
United States

Keith Sill

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
17
Abstract Views
363
PlumX Metrics