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A Global Model of International Yield Curves: No-Arbitrage Term Structure Approach

37 Pages Posted: 13 Apr 2011 Last revised: 22 Apr 2011

Iryna Kaminska

Bank of England

Andrew Meldrum

Independent; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

James Matthew Smith

Bank of England

Date Written: April 12, 2011

Abstract

This paper extends a popular no-arbitrage affine term structure model to model jointly bond markets and exchange rates across the United Kingdom, United States and euro area. Using a monthly data set of forward rates from 1992, we first demonstrate that two global factors account for a significant proportion in the variation of bond yields across countries. We also show that, in order to explain country-specific movements in yield curves, local factors are required. Although we implement a very general factor structure, we find that our global factors are related to global inflation and global economic activity, while local factors are closely linked to monetary policy rates. In this respect our results are similar to previous work. But an important advantage of our joint international model is that we are able to decompose interest rates into risk-free rates and risk premia. Additionally, we are able to study the implications for exchange rates. We show that while differences in risk-free rates matter, to a large extent changes in the exchange rate are determined by time-varying exchange rate risk premia.

Keywords: Term structure models, exchange rates

JEL Classification: C33, E43, F31

Suggested Citation

Kaminska, Iryna and Meldrum, Andrew and Smith, James Matthew, A Global Model of International Yield Curves: No-Arbitrage Term Structure Approach (April 12, 2011). Bank of England Working Paper No. 419. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1807989 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1807989

Iryna Kaminska (Contact Author)

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

Andrew Meldrum

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

James Matthew Smith

Bank of England ( email )

Threadneedle Street
London, EC2R 8AH
United Kingdom

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