Modelli Formali della Crisi (Formal Models of the Crisis)

Moneta e Credito, Vol. 63, No. 249, pp. 67-79, 2010

13 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2011 Last revised: 20 Apr 2011

Giancarlo Gandolfo

Accademia dei Lincei; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: April 13, 2011

Abstract

In this paper a distinction is made between the immediate technical-financial causes that unleashed the crisis in the United States, and its macroeconomic causes, which also explain its international transmission. Two formal paradigmatic models are considered. The first is Li’s formula on default correlation (“The Formula that Killed Wall Street”), whose misuse gave rise to the crisis. The second is the international financial multiplier set forth by Paul Krugman. After examining these two models, the paper concludes that, contrary to widespread opinion, the crisis was indeed foreseen by some economists, who, coming from the non-mainstream side of the profession, were largely ignored.

Notes: Downloadable document is in Italian.

Keywords: Cultura economica, Crisi finanziaria, Regole

JEL Classification: G01, F3, E44

Suggested Citation

Gandolfo, Giancarlo, Modelli Formali della Crisi (Formal Models of the Crisis) (April 13, 2011). Moneta e Credito, Vol. 63, No. 249, pp. 67-79, 2010. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1808870

Giancarlo Gandolfo (Contact Author)

Accademia dei Lincei ( email )

Via della Lungara 10
Rome, 00165
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://gandolfo.org

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

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